Wednesday, 28 October 2015

Modi's Waterloo


The Bihar elections are almost certainly going to be Modi’s Waterloo, after which his fortunes are going to rapidly decline. Let me explain.

 In most of India, including Bihar, most people vote on caste and religious lines. The exception is when there is a wave, which cuts through these lines.

The BJP had won the May, 2014 Lok Sabha elections on a Modi wave. This wave was due to three main reasons.

One, Modi’s magic slogan of ‘vikas’ (development), which was perceived as the creation of millions of jobs. The Indian youth, whose voting age was reduced from 21 to 18 in 1988, and who are facing the dreadful future of unemployment (10 million youth enter the job market in India every year, but only half a million jobs are created in the organised sector of the economy), voted en masse for Modi, cutting through caste and religious lines, in the belief that they would all get jobs.

Two, unfortunately the communal virus is still deeply entrenched in society. Most Hindus are communal, and so are most Muslims. Modi was perceived as a ‘Muslim basher’, who had put Muslims in their place in Gujarat in 2002. Many Hindus believe that there has been too much ‘Muslim appeasement’, and so voted for Modi to put Muslims in their place on an all-India basis.

Three, people were simply disgusted with Congress and the UPA under whose rule various scams were unearthed.

Now the Modi wave has largely dissipated, except among hardcore, mainly upper-caste Hindu fundamentalists.

There are no jobs despite the victory of the BJP. Jobs cannot be created by slogans. They are created when the economy is rapidly expanding. And the Indian economy is practically stagnant. So the youth who were expecting jobs have realised they were taken for a ride.

Those who talk of GDP growth ( assuming the figures are real and not cooked up, as they often are ) overlook the more important question : who is getting the fruits of this growth, the Indian masses or only a handful of big businessmen ?

The hope that foreign investments would come into India and create jobs has proved to be illusory. In fact Jim Rogers, a leading American investor has withdrawn his investments in India and exited, saying that one cannot invest in mere hope. Who will invest or set up factories in India in most parts of which there is lack of infrastructure, massive corruption and red tape? (despite Modi’s tall claims of ‘na khaoonga na kanedoonga’). As one foreign businessman said " There is a lot of sizzle, but where is the steak ? ". When even Indian businessmen are not investing in India, why should foreigners do so ?

On the other hand, prices of essential food items like daal and onions have gone through the roof. For instance, dal is selling at about Rs.200 a kilo. This means that the real incomes of most people in India have gone down drastically, because incomes are relative to the price index. Is this vikas ?

No doubt the communal card is still sought to be played – Dadri and the beef ban politics – but it is not having much effect. Food and jobs are more important to people than religion or talk of Digital India and visits to foreign countries.

So voting in the Bihar elections is following the traditional pattern of caste and religion, and we can therefore forecast the results with almost mathematical precision.

As per the 2011 Census of India, Scheduled Castes constitute 16 percent of Bihar’s 104 million population. The census identified 21 of 23 Dalit sub-castes as Mahadalits. The Mahadalit community consists of the following sub-castes: Bantar, Bauri, Bhogta, Bhuiya, Chaupal, Dabgar, Dom (Dhangad), Ghasi, Halalkhor, Hari (Mehtar, Bhangi), Kanjar, Kurariar, Lalbegi, Musahar, Nat, Pan (Swasi), Rajwar, Turi, Dhobi, Pasi, Chamar and Paswan (Dusadh).

The Paswan caste was initially left out of the Mahadalit category. Adivasis (Scheduled Tribes) constitute around 1.3 percent of Bihar’s population. Tribals include Gond, Santhal and Tharu communities in Bihar.

Extremely Backward Class (EBCs) is also sometimes referred to as Most Backward Class (MBCs). There are 130-odd EBC castes in Bihar.

Yadavs and Kurmis, constituting 19 percent, and Muslims – about 17 percent – will solidly vote for the Lalu-Nitish alliance, which makes it 36 percent of the vote. Muslims will vote for the alliance despite Owaisi, who is regarded as a BJP vote splitter by Muslims, and who will therefore not be misled by him, because Muslims are feeling very insecure after issues such as ‘love jihad’, ‘ghar wapasi’, speeches of Adityanath, Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti and incidents like those in Muzaffarnagar, Ballabhgarh, and the latest one at Dadri.

A section of the other backward castes, say 8-10 percent, will also vote for the alliance, as Lalu has successfully described it as a fight between the backwards and the forward castes.

Thus the tally of the Nitish-Lalu alliance comes to about 45 percent votes, which represents a sweep (the BJP got a majority in the Lok Sabha with only 31 percent votes).

The NDA’s support is from the upper castes, and a section of the EBCs (or MBCs) and a section of Dalits.

The upper castes in Bihar are altogether only 15 percent. Paswan does not have the support of all the Dalits (who are divided into a large number of sub-castes and Paswan is only one of the dalit sub-castes), in Bihar, unlike Mayawati who has the support of almost all the Dalits in UP. So he may get the NDA about 6-7 percent votes. Manjhi may get 7-8 percent MBC votes, and Kushwaha may get three percent of the votes.

Thus the total tally of NDA votes is at most 33 percent.

These figures show that there is clearly going to be a sweep in favour of the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar. In the Indian system of democracy, seats in elections depend not on percentage share of votes but on being first past the post. With 31 percent votes the BJP got an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha. Getting 45 percent votes means a massive victory for the Nitish-Lalu alliance
.
And after that, the deluge for the BJP. Massive agitations against price rise, unemployment, etc will begin almost immediately after the Bihar elections, and these will not be quelled by phoney slogans of vikas, and stunts like,Swatchata Abhiyan, Yoga Day, etc You can fool the people for some time, but not for all time.

18 comments:

  1. PENGAKUAN SAYA BERSAMA KELUARGAKU INI BUKAN CERITA ATAU PUN REKAYASA BENER-BENER TERBUKTI SAMA SAYA.
    Terima kasih sebesar-besarnya yang kami ucapkan kepada mbah warjoh yang telah memberikan keberhasilan dan keberuntungan bagi keluarga saya.berkat bantuan beliau saya sekarang sudah hidup tenang karena suamiku sudah punya usaha tambak yang luasnya sekitar 5 hektar kurang lebih. begitupun juga saya dirumah buka warung sembakau dan sekarang pun saya sekeluarga tidak di kejar-kejar hutang lagi. mulanya keluarga Kami di berikan angka gaib hasil ritual dari mbah warjoh yang sangat Jitu 100% dijamin tembus.sehingga keluarga saya sekarang merasa tenang lagi.sekali lagi terima kasih mbah jasamu dikeluarga saya tidak akan terlupakan.Jika anda butuh angka gaib hasil ritual mbah warjoh silahkan Tanyakan aja Pada mbah dinomer hp beliau di: 0851 4534 4218 atau silahkan KLIK DISINI Terima kasih

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sebelum saya ceritrakan kisah hudupku terlebih dahulu perkenalkan nama saya Pak Kusniadi. Dari Bogor. saya hanya ingin berbagi ceritah dengan kalian semua para penggilah togel, awalnya itu saya hanya kuli bagunan,punya anak dua,dan istri saya hanya penjual syayur keliling dikampung kami , ekonomi kami sangat pas-pasan, hutan tambah numpuk, anak saya juga butuh biaya sekolah,hidup ini bener-bener susah.Tapi akhirnya ada teman saya yang bilang bila mau merubah nasib coba hubungi nomor hp MBAH JEJE TRIJAYA katanya dia bisa membantu orang yang lagi susah. jadi saya lansung hubungi MBAH JEJE TRIJAYA, dan saya menceritakan semuanya, tenteng keluarga kami akhirnya saya di kasih angka ghaib [4d,] sudah 3x putaran tembus,dengan adanya MBAH JEJE TRIJAYA,saya sekeluarga bersukur semua utang saya lunas bahkan sekarang saya sudah buka usaha. silahkan anda buktikan sendiri insya allah anda tidak akan kecewa dari angka ghaib MBAH JEJE TRIJAYA bagi yang berminat hubungi MBAH JEJE TRIJAYA di nomor ini: 0823 3737 6471 dan saya sudah buktikan sendiri angka ghaibnya demih allah demi tuhan...ini kisah nyata dari saya,terima kasih.

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    2. KALAU ANDA MAU TAU INFO TOGEL, KENALKAN NAMA SAYA PAK WARHADIK, KAMI TINGGAL DIKALTIM PEKERJAAN JUAL NASI GORENG, SELAMA KAMI KENAL YANG NAMANYA NYI REKSO SARASWATI NASIB KAMI TIDAK SEPERTI YANG DULUH… KAMI SANGAT BERTERIMA KASIH KEPADA NYI REKSO SARASWATI BERKAT ANGKA YANG DI BERIKANN SAMA BELIAU.DAN ALHAMDULILLAH TEMBUS.DAN KAMI MINTAH ANGKA,4D…


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      angka"GHOIB; laos…
      angka"GHOIB; macau
      angka"GHOIB; sidney
      angka"GHOIB: vietnam

      Delete
    3. Sebelumnya perkenalkan nama saya Rahmad Bastian di jawa tengah ingin menceritakan kepada semua teman-teman bahwa saya yg dulunya orang yg paling susah kampungku,buat makan aja harus ngutan dulu ama tetangga itupun kalau ada yg mau ngasi,semakin saya berusaha semakin susah juga dapat pekerjaan dan selama saya ingin berbuat baik kepada orang lain semakin banyak pula yang benci ama saya dan cuma dianggap orang rendah,miskin,tidak punya apa-apa. Maka dari itu saya akhirnya bertekat untuk pergi mencari dukun yang bisa merubah nasib saya disuatu hari saya bertemu sama orang yang pernah dibantu ama AKI ROTAK dan dia memberikan nomer AKI ROTAK ,dia juga bilan kepada saya kalau AKI ROTAK bisa membantu orang yang lagi kesusahan,dan saya tidak berpikir panjang lebar lagi saya langsun menghubungi AKI ROTAK dengan senan hati AKI ROTAK ingin membantu saya dengan jalan togel,dan alhamdulillah saya sudah menang togel yang ke3 kalinya.setelah keberhasilan ini rencana saya ama keluarga ingin buka usaha demi untu kebutuhan keluarga yang tercinta sekali lagi makasih ya aki atas bantuanya jasa aki tidak akan perna saya lupakan.bagi teman-teman diluar sana yang ingin seperti saya silahkan hubungi AKI ROTAK di 082388316533 atau silahkan KLIK DISINI dan saya sangat bersyukur kepada allah swt karna melalui bantuan AKI ROTAK kini kehidupan saya sudah jauh lebih baik dari sebelumnya,ingat kesempatan tidak akan datan untuk yg kedua kalinya.

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    4. kami sekeluarga tak lupa mengucapkan puji syukur kepada ALLAH S,W,T
      dan terima kasih banyak kepada AKI atas nomor togel.nya yang AKI
      berikan 4 angka 3696 alhamdulillah ternyata itu benar2 tembus AKI.
      dan alhamdulillah sekarang saya bisa melunasi semua utan2 saya yang
      ada sama tetangga.dan juga BANK BRI dan bukan hanya itu AKI. insya
      allah saya akan coba untuk membuka usaha sendiri demi mencukupi
      kebutuhan keluarga saya sehari-hari itu semua berkat bantuan AKI..
      sekali lagi makasih banyak ya AKI… bagi saudara yang suka main togel
      yang ingin merubah nasib seperti saya silahkan hubungi AKI ALIH,,di no (((0823 1366 9888)))
      insya allah anda bisa seperti saya…menang togel 275
      juta, wassalam.


      dijamin 100% jebol saya sudah buktikan...sendiri....




      Apakah anda termasuk dalam kategori di bawah ini !!!!


      1"Dikejar-kejar hutang

      2"Selaluh kalah dalam bermain togel

      3"Barang berharga anda udah habis terjual Buat judi togel


      4"Anda udah kemana-mana tapi tidak menghasilkan solusi yg tepat


      5"Udah banyak Dukun togel yang kamu tempati minta angka jitunya
      tapi tidak ada satupun yang berhasil..


      Solusi yang tepat jangan anda putus asah.... AKI ALIH akan membantu
      anda semua dengan Angka ritwal/GHOIB:
      butuh angka togel 2D 3D 4D SGP / HKG / MALAYSIA / TOTO MAGNUM / dijamin
      100% jebol
      Apabila ada waktu
      silahkan Hub: AKI ALIH: (((0823 1366 9888)))

      KLIK RAMALAN TOGEL 4D 5D 6D


      angka GHOIB: singapur 2D/3D/4D/


      angka GHOIB: hongkong 2D/3D/4D/


      angka GHOIB; malaysia


      angka GHOIB; toto magnum 4D/5D/6D/


      angka GHOIB; laos

      Delete
    5. Saya sekeluarga mengucapkan banyak trima kasih kepada AKI MUPENG karena atas bantuannyalah saya bisa menang togel dan nomor gaib hasil ritual yang di berikan AKI MUPENG bener-bener dijamin tembus dan saat sekarang ini kehidupan saya sekeluarga sudah jauh lebih baik dari sebelumnya itu semua berkat bantuan AKI kini hutang-hutang saya sudah pada lunas semua dan.sekarang saya sudah buka usaha sendiri. jika anda mau bukti bukan rekayasa silahkan hubungi/sms AKI MUPENG di 0852 9445 0976, atau KLIK DISINI, insya allah angka beliau di jamin tembus dan beliau akan menbantu anda selama 3x putaran berturut-turut akan memenangkan angka togel dan ingat kesempatan tidak datang 2x,trima kasih.

      Delete
    6. Hal yang tidak pernah terbayankan kini menjadi kenyataan kepada keluargaku,,,kusus untuk AKI SANTOJOYO kami ucapkan banyak terimakasih yang sebesar-besarnya kepada aki. karna berkat bantuannya alhamdulillah keluarga kami bisa lepas dari hutang dan masalah, karena nomor “GAIB” untuk pasang togel, hasil ritual AKI SANTOJOYO meman benar-bener merubah nasib kami hanya sekejap,dan disitulah aku berkesempatan kumpulkan uang untuk buka usaha kembali,karna rumah juga sudah disita bank,,warung makan jg sudah bangkrut,,tapi itu semua aku masih tetap bertahan hidup dengan anak istriku,,walau cuma ngontrak tapi aku tetap bersabar dan akhirnya AKI SANTOJOYO lah yang bisa merubah nasib kami..maka dari itu AKI SANTOJOYO orang paling bersejarah di keluargaku…!!!jadi kepada teman2 yang di lilit hutang dan ingin merubah nasib seperti saya silahkan hub AKI SANTOJOYO di nomor: 0852~1159~9919 atau KLIK DISINI dengan penuh harapan percaya dan keyakinan insya allah pasti tercapai.

      Delete
  2. DULUNYA AKU TIDAK PERCAYA SAMA BANTUAN DARI
    PERAMAL TOGEL,TAPI SEKARANG AKU SUDAH PERCAYA
    KARENA SAYA SUDA MEMBUKTIKA SENDIRI.KARNA ANGKA
    YG DIBERIKAN 4D BENAR2 TEMBUS 100% ALHAMBUHLILLAH
    DPT 450 JUTA.DAN SAYA SELAKU PEMAIN TOGEL,DAN KEPERCAYAAN
    ITU ADALAH SUATU KEMENANGAN DAN SAAT SKRAG SY TEMUKAN
    ORANG YG BISA MENGELUARKAN ANGKA2 GAIB YAITU Aky WOWO
    JIKA ANDA YAKIN DAN PERCAYA NAMANYA ANGKA GOIB ANDA BISA
    HUBUNGI LANSUNG Aky WOWO DI NO_085328880180 atau Lihat SITUS RESMI AKI WOWO
    SAYA
    SUDAH BUKTIKAN SENDIRI ANGKA GOIBNYA DEMIH ALLAH DEMI TUHAN.
    INI KISAH NYAT SAYA.....

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sir,

    Day after day, it seems like you do a one sided job of educating your followers. One sided, because it seems you have an idea in your mind and you just keep looking for narratives that suit that idea.

    You spoke of Jim Rogers, please read this article too, from fellow Indian investors:

    http://www.livemint.com/Money/TWVle7y1p1o67sxRo8f30K/Setting-the-picture-right.html

    Or this:

    http://alphaideas.in/2015/10/27/the-worlds-most-attractive-investment-markets/

    I know it can be said that investors can be wrong, but so can be Jim rogers. By the way, the man was buying commodities heavily past few years. Look where commodities are now.

    Prices of pulses have started coming down because of government action!

    http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/pulse-prices-start-easing-as-82-000-tonnes-seized-from-hoarders-115102701204_1.html

    Millions of Jobs cannot be created overnight. It takes time! It's been 1.5 years since this government took over. Even Lee Kuan Yew would not have been able to anything in Singapore in 1.5 years.

    As far as foreign interest is concerned, please read these from today:

    http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/tesla-may-set-up-battery-unit-in-india-elon-musk-115102700296_1.html

    http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-jumps-4-spots-on-world-bank-s-ease-of-doing-business-list-115102800032_1.html

    All said and done, you might be right. But you only give the narrative that suits your argument. And that's not a good way to come to conclusions.

    ReplyDelete
  4. You overlooked the fact that though the expectations are quite high due to several reasons; the realm of almost 67 years vs 1 & 1/2 Year should not be compared. Rather it is incomparable by any standard.
    What I perceive is that it will not be so easy for the Mahagathbandhan!
    Let us see...

    ReplyDelete
  5. Saya ingin menyampaikan kepada
    seluruh TKI yang bekerja di negeri orang ,,
    saya PAK DENDI seorang TKI DI MALAYSIA
    pengen pulang ke indonesia tapi gak ada ongkos pulang
    sempat saya putus asa, apa lagi istri dengan keadaan hamil
    dan gaji aku pun buat makansehari2 saja, sedangkan hutang banyak.
    kebetulan istri saya buka-buka facebook mendapatkan
    nomor MBAH KASENG katanya bisa bantu orang melunasi hutang
    melalui jalan TOGEL ,,dengan keadaan susah jadi saya coba
    hubungi MBAH karna saya pikir tidak ada salah,nya kita coba dan minta
    angka bocoran MALAYSIA angka yang di berikan MBAH 6D dan alahamdulillah ternyata betul-betul tembus 100% bagi saudarah-saudarah di indonesia maupun di
    luar negeri apabila punya masalah hutang sudah lama belum lunas
    jangan putus asah beliau bisa membantu meringankan masalah anda dengan meriktualkan angka togel ghaib SINGAPURA/HONGKONG/MALAYSIA 2D,3D,4D,5D, Atau 6D yang betul-betul tembus
    hubungi MBAH KASENG di nomor 0823-1434-8847 silahkan anda buktikan sendiri
    demi allah saya sudah membuktikan angka dari MBAH sekrang giliran anda untuk MEMBUKTIKANNYA!!!























    ReplyDelete
  6. Nice analysis. Let us see with results..

    ReplyDelete
  7. See how police started riots in GMDC Ground Gujarat https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqUsd0K2XT4

    The riots in Gujarat were started by police to put an end to peaceful protest by millions of citizens in the state of Gujarat, watch in this video Gujarat Police willfully vandalizing public properties.. 10 citizens from Patel community died in a night, few were killed in police custody and others found death on the street battered. The Government is quite and not openly speaking against the actions of these savages! In fear and anxiety few Patel youths commit suicide in the support of the movement, while government charges 100's of protesters with sedition charges
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b38JALqnEKk


    https://plus.google.com/u/0/115022890674446591094/about

    https://twitter.com/1RobbiePeters1

    ReplyDelete
  8. Yes there is every possibility that your predictions may come true, but.........

    The whole problem is there seems to be no better leader than Modi at the moment. He is able to still make me feel positive, provide some hope. We want some patriotic, talented, strong, hard working, honest leader. Unfortunately, even for benefit of doubt we cant see any other good futuristic leader. Modi atleast gives us some hope, so lets back him
    1. He won in Gujarat continously
    2. Almost single handedly he won the election for BJP and became PM.
    3. He need not make money for his family.
    4. Seems to be hard working
    5. Have good Leadership qualities
    6. Have good Administrative qualities
    7. Very Good Speaker
    8. Patriotic
    9. Earned respect even abroad
    10. Trying to bring some investment and business to India.
    11. Motivating
    12. Have less bad habits
    Many more good qualities...
    After he became CM hardly any communal problems came to news from gujarath

    ReplyDelete
  9. There are so many communities and caste smaller to patel.
    Then all those communities should also be given reservation.
    Since Patel community has higher population they may win but it will be injustice to others.
    Reservation should be abolished and the poor people, BC, OBC, SC, ST should be given free education and free medical. The best should competent people should only be in administration.
    Caste should not be even asked by anyone. All are equal.
    First step to abolish cast is to punish who ask others caste.

    ReplyDelete
  10. It doesn't look like Nitish will sweep the elections. Vote shares of various groups don't always add up like that. I wouldn't be surprised if NDA ends up with higher seats and vote share than congress. I expect NDA to be within striking distance to 50% mark than Nitish's coalition. People who predict NDA/BJP/Modi will lose are in for a surprise. Wait and watch.

    ReplyDelete