The Shape of Things to Come

CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research and policy advisory service. Its major shareholder is Standard and Poors, a division of McGraw Hill Financial Company.

 In a research study Crisil has found that between 2005-2010, 2.7 crore jobs were created in India, but in the same period 2.5 self employments ceased. So in effect only 20 lac new jobs were added in this period.

 However, during this period 10 crore youth entered the job market. So only 5% youth got jobs. What happened to the rest ? They probably ended up as street vendors, hawkers, stringers , bouncers, beggars, prostitutes, or criminals. I have already mentioned this in my articles 'Vikaas' and 'Unemployment in India' on fb and on my blog justicekatju.blogspot.in.

 An equally important fact revealed in the study by Crisil mentions that  in 2005, to do production of Rs.1 crore, 171 workers were required, whereas in 2010 to do the same production only 105 workers were required. So there was almost a 48% job reduction so far as the per unit production was concerned. This was obviously because due to the introduction of new technology, industry was becoming more capital intensive rather than labour intensive ( see my article 'World Economic Crisis' on my fb page and my blog ).

 So though the GDP grew, industries earned profits, and sensex rose,  jobs were reduced.

 I submit that ' Make in India ' will worsen the job situation in India. According to a study by the Central University of Gujarat, Gandhinagar, for every 10% increase in foreign investment, there is a 1% job reduction.. This is because on the one hand these foreign industries, or industries financed by foreign investments, are highly capital intensive and so provide few jobs, on the other hand, they ruin many small industries which were employing lacs of workers, or self employed people, who cannot face the competition of multi- national giants.

  The present Union Government came to power on the slogan of ' vikas ', which meant creation of millions of jobs. The youth in India,particularly, voted en masse for BJP under this impression. But the economic theory on which the Government of India is running is the 'Trickle Down Theory' ( see my article by the same name on fb and my blog in which I have pointed out the fallacy in the theory ). It will destroy many more jobs than it will create. Consequently large scale disillusionment is bound to set in soon, when the youth, small and middle businessmen, workers, farmers, shopkeepers, traders, and even some big businessmen etc realize that they have been befooled and taken for a ride. In fact it has already set in, as I am informed.

At the same time prices of foodstuffs are rising, making livelihood more difficult. In the last two weeks they have risen on an average 10-20%.Onion is Rs.40 a kilo, tomato Rs.50, saag Rs.40, peas ( matar ) Rs.50, beans Rs.60, cauliflower Rs.. 40,cabbage Rs. 30 , potato Rs.20,etc. Mutton is Rs450 per kg

I submit that despite the recent electoral victories in the state elections ( which they won because Congress gave them a walk over by persisting in retaining the discredited Sonia and Rahul Gandhi as their leaders ), the Modi government will become extremely unpopular in less than 6 months from now, and then large scale agitations against it will begin, which will result in another Emergency