After Narendra Modi's rally yesterday ( 10.1.2015 ) at the Ramlila ground in Delhi, I am convinced now that the AAP is going to get a clear majority in the Delhi Assembly elections next month. This is for two reasons :
(1) Despite all out efforts by the BJP which is in power in the centre to bring huge crowds to the rally ( by reportedly hiring 2300 vehicles and even bringing homeless people by offering them food ), there was a poor turnout, leaving many empty seats, which is said to have angered the party leadership.
According to the estimate of the Delhi police, only 35,000 people attended the rally ( see today's 'The Hindu', page 4 ), as compared to 1.35 lacs in Modi's Delhi rally in September 2013.
The reason for this poor attendance seems to be obvious: in the 7 months since the BJP came to power in the Centre, people have seen through the emptiness of the magic mantra 'vikas', which won the Lok Sabha Election for it in May 2014.
There was a time when wherever Modi went there were massive crowds. Those days are gone, as people have seen their high expectations dashed completely. The millions of jobs which were impliedly promised in the name of 'vikas' are not to be seen anywhere, and most businessmen ( except a handful close to Modi ) are very worried.
(2) Modi's speech was basically negative : attacking Kejriwal as an anarchist who should join the naxals, etc.
Thus Modi seems to have himself realized that the slogan 'vikas' no longer works.
In an earlier post I had mentioned that to win an election something positive has to be offered which the people want.
While Kejriwal is offering something positive i.e. lowering of electricity tariff and bills, and abolition of water charges for the lower segments, etc. which Delhiites are very concerned about, Modi is indulging in only negative talk ( personal attacks on Kejriwal). Of course Modi also spoke of giving 24 hours electricity to Delhi people, but that was more to counter Kejriwal's agenda, and nobody believes it.
Kejriwal is an impulsive and impatient man, but he is basically honest, and will learn from his mistakes. People of Delhi believe that his good points outweigh his bad points, and have forgiven him