Friday, 10 July 2015

The coming Bihar elections


Although I have a poor opinion of the AAP. I had predicted their overwhelming victory in the February, 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, and I was proved right.

 Now I predict an overwhelming victory for the JDU-RJD alliance in the coming Bihar Assembly elections to be held when the term of the present Assembly expires in November 2015. This is despite the fact that I have called the alliance unprincipled. Let me give my reasons.

 In most ( though not all ) states in India, including Bihar, voting is done broadly on the basis of caste and religion, as vote banks.

  The exception to this is when there is a wave, when voting cuts through caste and religious barriers. For example, the 'Garibi hatao' slogan created a wave in favour of Indira Gandhi. Similarly, on the assassination of Indira Gandhi, there was a sympathy wave in favour of Congress.

 In the May 2014 Lok Sabha elections, there was a ' Modi wave '. This was for two reasons, a positive and a negative. The positive factor was the 'vikas' slogan given by Modi, which created an impression that million of jobs will be created. This attracted the Indian youth, whose voting age had been reduced to 18 years, and they voted en masse for Modi, cutting through caste and religious lines. The negative factor was the disgust the Indian people felt towards th\e Congress when scam after scam was exposed.

 Within nine months of May 2014 this wave had totally dissipated, as the jobs were not there, and the Indian youth realized that they had been taken for a ride and left in the lurch. So in the February 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, the same BJP which had won all 7 Lok Sabha Delhi seats, was almost wiped out.

 Now let us come to Bihar.

In the May 2014 Lok Sabha elections BJP won almost all Lok Sabha seats. But, as I had said earlier, that was because there was a Modi wave. Now there is none. So voting will now be done on the traditional caste and religious basis.

 The upper castes ( brahmins, bhumihars, rajputs, kayasthas, etc ) will broadly vote for BJP. But they are collectively only 17-18% of the population. Since Ram Bilas Paswan and Manjhi have allied themselves to BJP, another 7-8% SC votes can be added to that. So the tally reaches a maximum of 25-26%.

 On the other hand, the RJD-JDU alliance, coupled with the 17-18% Muslims who will vote solidly against BJP ( thanks to love jihad, ghar wapasi, beef ban, and the vitriolic speeches of Mahant Adityanath and Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti ), is almost sure to get about 75% to 80% of the 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly, in view of the caste and religious combination in their favour

 A chart of the caste population in Bihar is given below :

Social engineering and alliance formation

Both the alliances- BJP led NDA alliance and Nitish Kumar-led alliance are trying social engineering. On 7 June 2015, Lalu Prasad Yadav announced RJD alliance with JD(U) for the elections. On 11 June 2015,Jitan Ram Manjhi announced his party Hindustani Awam Morcha alliance with BJP for the elections. In April 2015, Bihar chief Minister Nitish Kumar announced decision to include few more castes including Teli caste in list of Extremely Backward Class in Bihar In July 2015, Nitish Kumar announced 50 percent quota for OBC, EBC and SC/STs in all government contracts up to Rs 15 lakh. On 3 July 2015, BJP announced its seventh Morcha, called BJP OBC Morcha, keeping in mind the Bihar polls.

Castes of Bihar
Caste Population (%)
OBC/EBC 51% ( Yadavs -14%, Kurmis -4%, Koeris -8%,[32]
,( EBCs - 24% -includes Kushwaha-4%, Teli-3.2%)
Mahadalits* 10%
Dalits 6% (Paswans/Dusadh -4%)
Muslims 16.5%
Forward caste 15% (Bhumihar -6%, Brahmin-5%, Rajputs- 3%, Kayasth- 1%)
Adivasis(STs) 1.3%
Others 1% (include Christians,Sikhs,Jains)

As per, 2011 Census of India , Scheduled Castes constitute 16% of Bihar's 104 million population. The census identified 21 of 23 Dalit sub-castes as Mahadalits. They include Musahar, Bhuiyan, Dom, Chamar, Dhobi and Nat. Paswan caste was left out of the Mahadalit category. Adivasis (Scheduled Tribes) constitute around 1.3% of Bihar population. Tribals include Gond, Santhal and Tharu communities in Bihar.

Extremely Backward Class (EBCs) are also sometimes referred to as Most Backward Class(MBCs).

12 comments:

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    Replies

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    4. here some information regarding bihar polls 2015. you can find here all latest updates.

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  2. Replies

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  3. SAYA PAK JOKO INGIN BERBAGI CERITA KEPADA ANDA BAHWA SAYA INI DULUNYA ORANG YANG PALING SENSARA DIDUNIA.SETIAP HARI ISTRI SAYA SELALU MENGELUH TENTAN MASALAH EKONOMI BAHKAN KAMI PERNAH TIDAK MAKAN DALAM 1 HARIL 1 MALAM,KE ESOKAN HARINYA ADA TETANNGA KAMI YG MEMBAWAKAN MAKANAN DAN TIDAK DISENGAJA DIA JUGA BERCERITA TENTANG MASALAH HIDUPNYA DULU DAN AKHIRNYA DIA MEMBERIKAN NO AKI MAUPE ..TIDAK BERPIKIR PANJAN SAYA LANSUNG MENGHUBUNGI AKI MAUPE DAN ALHAMDULILLAH BELIAU SANGAT MEMBANTU SAYA DAN SAYA SANGAT BER TERIMAKASIH KEPADA AKI MAUPE ATAS BANTUANNYA YG TELAH MEMBERIKAN ANKA JITUNYA YAITU (1299) SYUKUR ALHAMDULILLAH BER HASIL DAN KINI SAYA SANGAT BAHAGIA MELIHAT KEHIDUPAN KELUARGA SAYA YG SUDAH JAUH LEBIH BAIK DARI SEBELUMNYA DAN MEREKA JUGA TDK PERNAH LAGI MENGELUH MASALAH KEUANGAN,,KAMI JG SUDAH BERENCANA INGIN MEMBUKA TOKO SENDIRI ITU SEMUA BERKAT BANTUAN AKI MAUPE DAN BAGI ANDA YG INGIN SEPERTI SAYA YG MEMERLUKAN BANTUAN AKI MAUPE SILAHKAN HUB 085=222=967=279 SILAHKAN ANDA MEMBUKTIKANNYA SENDIRI.





    SAYA PAK JOKO INGIN BERBAGI CERITA KEPADA ANDA BAHWA SAYA INI DULUNYA ORANG YANG PALING SENSARA DIDUNIA.SETIAP HARI ISTRI SAYA SELALU MENGELUH TENTAN MASALAH EKONOMI BAHKAN KAMI PERNAH TIDAK MAKAN DALAM 1 HARIL 1 MALAM,KE ESOKAN HARINYA ADA TETANNGA KAMI YG MEMBAWAKAN MAKANAN DAN TIDAK DISENGAJA DIA JUGA BERCERITA TENTANG MASALAH HIDUPNYA DULU DAN AKHIRNYA DIA MEMBERIKAN NO AKI MAUPE ..TIDAK BERPIKIR PANJAN SAYA LANSUNG MENGHUBUNGI AKI MAUPE DAN ALHAMDULILLAH BELIAU SANGAT MEMBANTU SAYA DAN SAYA SANGAT BER TERIMAKASIH KEPADA AKI MAUPE ATAS BANTUANNYA YG TELAH MEMBERIKAN ANKA JITUNYA YAITU (1299) SYUKUR ALHAMDULILLAH BER HASIL DAN KINI SAYA SANGAT BAHAGIA MELIHAT KEHIDUPAN KELUARGA SAYA YG SUDAH JAUH LEBIH BAIK DARI SEBELUMNYA DAN MEREKA JUGA TDK PERNAH LAGI MENGELUH MASALAH KEUANGAN,,KAMI JG SUDAH BERENCANA INGIN MEMBUKA TOKO SENDIRI ITU SEMUA BERKAT BANTUAN AKI MAUPE DAN BAGI ANDA YG INGIN SEPERTI SAYA YG MEMERLUKAN BANTUAN AKI MAUPE SILAHKAN HUB 085=222=967=279 SILAHKAN ANDA MEMBUKTIKANNYA SENDIRI.


















































































































































































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  4. Sir 2 incident can turn this analysis upside down in Bihar election.
    1) Rahul Gandhi getting married to dalit girl and asking for vote. As he will become son-in- law of Bihar.
    2) Riot in which Hindu and Muslim will die and Hindu vote will be consolidated together in favor of BJP.

    Bihar mai Garmiya badne wali hai.
    Logo ko sambal ke rehna chaiye .
    Nimbu Sarbat baraf aur Chass Lassi ka sewan karna chaiye aur Kahan kam khana chaiye.

    Jai Ho.

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  5. Dear sir, I would be happy to see your prediction come in Bihar in upcoming elections of assembly there but I do not concur with you on MODI WAVE since it was ANTI-CONGRESS WAVE which resulted in Modi's favor due to RamLeela Maidan anti corruption agitations.

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  6. Since I was raised in Bihar and originally I am a bihari, so I have done very close observations regarding Bihar and people from Bihar (Biharis). I will not get into the cast or religion part. But a very common behaviour of the people living in Bihar. They are very inocent and thats why everytime they get cheated by the politucal parties. The people are very honest(mostly) there and they somehow want to get rid of these political parties.
    But, one thing I could not figure out that what happens to their redolution/ swear to get rid of these political parties, when there is a SHAGUFA OF CAST & RELIGION. I dont know as why the wise Biharis do the same mistake once the CAST & RELIGION SHAGUFA is spread.
    I can remember the speech of our former Prime Minister Sri Atal B. Bajpai that Bihar has the same status within India as India has within the world. And its worth to mention here that we Indians have been doing idiocy repeatedly. Hence, we Indians are called idiots. Sorry to mention here but this is often said.
    I would like to share a hypothetical but entertaining story here just to make all of us laugh- Once upon a time Narad Muni came to earth and started roaming and exploring the earth. All of a sudden he saw the kid of a pig. The pig was so cute and lovely and Narad Muni got attracted. He became very sympathetic to the kid of that pig and offered him for a PERMANENT STAY IN SWARG. Narad Muni explained all the facilities available in the SWARG. In response to the offer of Narad Muni the pig agreed to go to SWARG along with Narad Muni. But suddenly, the pig stppped and asked - WILL I GET LATERINE/ SHIT TO EAT IN SWARG ??
    Narad Muni got scared and disapeared the earth at that point of time.

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