Why the middle class is at the barricades

Corruption yesterday, sexual violence today, the middle class is protesting because its real income has been eroded

The agitation in Delhi and many other parts of the country over the recent gangrape of a young woman (the victim unfortunately died), reminds me of the Anna Hazare-led agitation against corruption. Just as the latter fizzled out in a few weeks’ time, I predict that this agitation too will soon fizzle out. And just as the Hazare mobilisation has not led to the reduction of corruption in the country by even 0.1 per cent, so also the present agitation will not lead to anything.

Of course, I would like to see the culprits severely punished under the law. What I have to say, however, is this. First, serious problems are not solved by emotional outbursts such as we are seeing (hyped, no doubt, by many of our TV channels), or even by amendment of the law (as some are advocating), but by great social change. Second, gangrape is not the only serious issue before the nation, as some people seem to be contending. There are several equally, if not more, serious issues facing the nation. For example, massive poverty, high rates of child malnutrition and farmer suicide, abysmal healthcare and education for our masses, massive unemployment, skyrocketing prices, etc. Our TRP-led media does not hype these equally, if not more, serious issues and we seldom see huge crowds of middle-class people at Jantar Mantar or on Ramlila Grounds or at India Gate agitating against these issues.

In my opinion, however, the Hazare agitation and the present agitation against the gangrape are symptomatic of a deeper malady in the country, and it is this: there is great discontent in our middle classes, which is making them go to the streets. What the cause of this deep discontent is, is what has to be examined.

India has a population of about 1.2 billion, of which 80 per cent or so are poor. However, there is also a middle class of about 15-20 per cent of the population, which emerged after Independence (due to a certain degree of industrialisation) and which enjoys a higher standard of living and higher incomes than the 80 per cent poor in our country. It is this middle class that is responsible for the relative stability of India after Independence (there was no civil war in India, for example). This middle class provided a market for our industries, which in turn provided employment to many of our youth.

However, over the last few years, real income and consequently the standard of living of the middle class has rapidly eroded due to steep price rise, worldwide recession (which has impacted India too, resulting in rise in unemployment), etc. Suppose someone was earning Rs 20,000 per month. If prices double, his real income becomes Rs 10,000, though ostensibly he appears to be still earning Rs 20,000 (because income is relative to the level of prices).

This is the real cause of the discontent in the middle class in India and it is the real factor driving them to the streets. Hence, if the apparent issue behind the recent agitations had not been corruption or gangrape (and I agree these are serious issues), there would have been some other serious issue (and there are dozens of other serious issues in our country) on which some of our middle classes would have taken to the streets.

It is this deep discontent in our middle classes (for the reasons I have mentioned) that is converting the period of stability India has enjoyed since Independence to a period of instability. 

If the people at the helm of affairs do not understand and seriously address this malady, I am afraid India is entering a prolonged period of chaos and anarchy.

 ( The writer, a former judge of the Supreme Court, is chairman of the Press Council of India. )

Published in The Indian EXPRESS on 07/01/2013.

Wake Up, India's Bourbons

It’s time for our Bourbons to wake up and sense the anger of the public

Rau mein hai rakhsh-e-umr kahaan dekhiye thame

Nai haath baag par hai, na paa hai rakaab mein

Mirza Ghalib’s couplet quintessentially reflects the historical situation in India today.

“Rau” means speed, “rakhsh” means horse, “umr” means time (it also means life, but here it means time or era), “bag” means “reins” (of a horse), and “rakaab” means stirrup.

Hence the sher means: “The horse of the times is on the gallop, Let us see where it stops/The rider has neither the reins in his hands, nor his feet in the stirrup.”

Ghalib was probably writing of the happenings at the time of the Great Mutiny of 1857, when events took place at a galloping pace. But the beauty of Ghalib’s poetry (as also of much of Urdu poetry) is that it is often universal in time and place.

Today in India, the pace of history has speeded up. Events are taking place even more rapidly than earlier, and one wonders where all this will end.

In the media, one scam after another is reported, often involving politicians who swear by the poor and disadvantaged sections of society.

Talleyrand said of the Bourbons that they “saw nothing, remembered nothing, and forgot nothing.” Most Indian politicians today remind one of the Bourbons. They do not see the public anger rising against them and reaching boiling point. They do not remember the fate of the Bourbons, the Hapsburgs, and the Romanovs (if they have even heard of them). And they do not forget their power and pelf, thinking these will continue forever, as did the ill-fated dynasties mentioned above.

The decisive factor is the economy. The Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, said recently that deceleration in the Indian GDP growth has bottomed out at 5.5 per cent. This rosy picture is in sharp contrast to Standard & Poor’s warning that the Indian economy’s sovereign credit rating could be downgraded to “junk status” in 24 months.

What economists like Dr. Ahluwalia do not see is that the problem in India is not how to increase production (that can easily be increased considering the large number of engineers and technicians, and immense natural resources) but how to raise the purchasing power of the Indian masses. After all, what is produced has to be sold, but how can it be sold when 75-80 per cent of our people are poor, living on about Rs.25 per day?

Moreover, if GDP growth benefits only a handful of rich people by making them richer while the poor become poorer because of inflation, it follows that the goods manufactured cannot be sold because the masses will have no purchasing power.

In recent months there has been a manufacturing decline in India, and export-oriented industries have been particularly hard hit because of the recession in western countries.

India’s relative stability was based on the 15-20 per cent middle class, which, considering our huge population of 1,200 million, would be about 200-250 million. This provided a market for our goods and services. This middle class is fast losing its purchasing power due to skyrocketing prices, and this in turn is fast eroding India’s stability, as can be seen from the popular agitations lately.

Massive poverty, huge unemployment, skyrocketing prices, absence of health care for the poor people, farmers’ suicides, child malnutrition, etc, are all an explosive mixture. If the Bourbons do not wake up now (of which I see little likelihood at present), a prolonged period of chaos and anarchy seems inevitable in India in the near, not distant, future.

Published in The Hindu on November 7, 2012