Although I have a poor opinion of the AAP. I had predicted their overwhelming victory in the February, 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, and I was proved right.
Now I predict an overwhelming victory for the JDU-RJD alliance in the coming Bihar Assembly elections to be held when the term of the present Assembly expires in November 2015. This is despite the fact that I have called the alliance unprincipled. Let me give my reasons.
In most ( though not all ) states in India, including Bihar, voting is done broadly on the basis of caste and religion, as vote banks.
The exception to this is when there is a wave, when voting cuts through caste and religious barriers. For example, the 'Garibi hatao' slogan created a wave in favour of Indira Gandhi. Similarly, on the assassination of Indira Gandhi, there was a sympathy wave in favour of Congress.
In the May 2014 Lok Sabha elections, there was a ' Modi wave '. This was for two reasons, a positive and a negative. The positive factor was the 'vikas' slogan given by Modi, which created an impression that million of jobs will be created. This attracted the Indian youth, whose voting age had been reduced to 18 years, and they voted en masse for Modi, cutting through caste and religious lines. The negative factor was the disgust the Indian people felt towards th\e Congress when scam after scam was exposed.
Within nine months of May 2014 this wave had totally dissipated, as the jobs were not there, and the Indian youth realized that they had been taken for a ride and left in the lurch. So in the February 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, the same BJP which had won all 7 Lok Sabha Delhi seats, was almost wiped out.
Now let us come to Bihar.
In the May 2014 Lok Sabha elections BJP won almost all Lok Sabha seats. But, as I had said earlier, that was because there was a Modi wave. Now there is none. So voting will now be done on the traditional caste and religious basis.
The upper castes ( brahmins, bhumihars, rajputs, kayasthas, etc ) will broadly vote for BJP. But they are collectively only 17-18% of the population. Since Ram Bilas Paswan and Manjhi have allied themselves to BJP, another 7-8% SC votes can be added to that. So the tally reaches a maximum of 25-26%.
On the other hand, the RJD-JDU alliance, coupled with the 17-18% Muslims who will vote solidly against BJP ( thanks to love jihad, ghar wapasi, beef ban, and the vitriolic speeches of Mahant Adityanath and Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti ), is almost sure to get about 75% to 80% of the 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly, in view of the caste and religious combination in their favour
A chart of the caste population in Bihar is given below :
Social engineering and alliance formation
Both the alliances- BJP led NDA alliance and Nitish Kumar-led alliance are trying social engineering. On 7 June 2015, Lalu Prasad Yadav announced RJD alliance with JD(U) for the elections. On 11 June 2015,Jitan Ram Manjhi announced his party Hindustani Awam Morcha alliance with BJP for the elections. In April 2015, Bihar chief Minister Nitish Kumar announced decision to include few more castes including Teli caste in list of Extremely Backward Class in Bihar In July 2015, Nitish Kumar announced 50 percent quota for OBC, EBC and SC/STs in all government contracts up to Rs 15 lakh. On 3 July 2015, BJP announced its seventh Morcha, called BJP OBC Morcha, keeping in mind the Bihar polls.
Castes of Bihar
Caste Population (%)
OBC/EBC 51% ( Yadavs -14%, Kurmis -4%, Koeris -8%,
,( EBCs - 24% -includes Kushwaha-4%, Teli-3.2%)
Dalits 6% (Paswans/Dusadh -4%)
Forward caste 15% (Bhumihar -6%, Brahmin-5%, Rajputs- 3%, Kayasth- 1%)
Others 1% (include Christians,Sikhs,Jains)
As per, 2011 Census of India , Scheduled Castes constitute 16% of Bihar's 104 million population. The census identified 21 of 23 Dalit sub-castes as Mahadalits. They include Musahar, Bhuiyan, Dom, Chamar, Dhobi and Nat. Paswan caste was left out of the Mahadalit category. Adivasis (Scheduled Tribes) constitute around 1.3% of Bihar population. Tribals include Gond, Santhal and Tharu communities in Bihar.
Extremely Backward Class (EBCs) are also sometimes referred to as Most Backward Class(MBCs).