Nitish and Kejriwal

Some people have asked me why I have now praised Arvind Kejriwal when I had often criticized him in the past.

It is true that earlier I had criticized him because I did not like some things he did e.g. allotting Rs. 536 crores in the Delhi budget for propaganda, the odd even scheme ( which has not reduced pollution ) etc.

But no one is perfect. We are all a combination of good and bad points.
What many persons have been telling me is about the good things Kejriwal has done for Delhi :

(1) He has setup mohalla clinics which provide free medicines and medical care for the poor people of Delhi. This was very much needed since the poor people are often too poor to afford medical care.

(2) He has provided free water to those who consume not more than 20,000 litres per month, and has reduced by half the electricity bills. This is a great relief to the common man

(3) He has got abolished the fee hike in educational institutions, e.g. Delhi Public School. This again is a great relief, as many people could not afford to pay the hiked fees

(4) Businessmen in Delhi are also happy by the reduction of VAT from 12% to 7%, and his strong objection to hike in taxes on jewelry shops etc.

My perception is that Kejriwal is personally honest and intends to do good to the people of Delhi. But he is new in politics and so lacks experience. That is why I suggested him for the post of Deputy Prime Minister, and not Prime Minister However, he will get experience and maturity with passage of time..
He must choose his advisers better ( at present many are only sycophants ).

Many people have criticized me for suggesting Nitish Kumar as the next Prime Minister. I have followed Nitish Kumar's career carefully. He had earlier made some mistakes, for which I had criticized him. But now he seems to have overcome those errors. I have not heard anything against his personal integrity. He is mature and experienced, qualities which Kejriwal needs to develop.

Some people have no doubt criticized Nitish for allying with Lalu Yadav, but in politics one has sometimes to make compromises..This is not a perfect world.
I have also a good opinion of Naveen Patnaik.

It is true that I am no one to appoint Prime Ministers and Deputy Prime Ministers. But as a citizen surely I have a right to present my view.

Bihar Liqour ban from 1.4.2016

I thought Nitish Kumar is a sensible man, but I am changing my opinion. He has announced ban on sale of liquor in Bihar from 1.4.2016.

 It is common knowledge that such bans are counter productive, and give rise to crime, deaths by drinking illicit liqour, etc. The experience in America, where prohibition was imposed in 1920, and lasted till 1933, was that it gave rise to the mafia gangs which thrived during this period.

 Consumption of alcohol will not go down despite this ban, but many people will die by drinking illicit liquor.

 Poor people drink liquor to get temporary relief from their miserable life. So the real way to bring down consumption of liquor is to give them decent lives

The New Miracle Man

Just as Narendra Modi was regarded a miracle man at one time, and Arvind Kejriwal later, some people are perceiving and projecting Nitish Kumar as the miracle man now, the modern Moses who will lead India into a land of milk and honey.

 I submit that this is only a pipe dream, which will soon disappear. Leave aside the fact that the new Bihar government is saddled with the stranglehold of the RJD, and assuming Nitish is personally honest, what can he achieve ?

  The main problems of Bihar, as also the whole of India, are massive poverty, unemployment, malnutrition, lack of healthcare, good education, etc. I am afraid Nitish has no idea how to solve these problems.

 Take, for example, the question of unemployment. Now jobs can be created and poverty abolished when the economy is rapidly expanding. For that massive industrialization is necessary. There is no difficulty in increasing production, because India today has a huge pool of competent engineers, technicians, scientists,etc ( which it did not have in 1947 ) and has also immense natural resources. 

The problem is: how will these additional goods produced be sold ? People in India, including Bihar, are too poor and have little purchasing power, and with rise in prices of foodstuffs, etc this purchasing power has further been reduced. After all, the goods produced have to be sold, but how can they be sold when people are too poor to buy them ?

 So the basic question is not how to increase production ( that can easily be done ) but how to increase the purchasing power of the masses ?

 Under the Nazi regime unemployment was largely abolished by a programme of massive rearmament ( see William Shirer's ' Rise and Fall of the Third Reich ' ), which was financed by certain Western powers. But that is hardly possible in India today.

 The other method for abolishing unemployment was that adopted in the Soviet Union in the 1930s. At a time when Western economies were going through a depression following the Wall Street Slump of 1929, the Soviet economy was rapidly expanding. How was this achieved ? The methodology followed there was this : the Central Government fixed all prices of goods. Thereafter they steadily reduced prices of goods by about 5-10% every 2 years or so, and sometimes raised wages by 5-10%. In this way by state action the purchasing power of the people was steadily increased. When prices are reduced, the real wages automatically increase, because incomes are relative to the price index. Simultaneously production was increased, and the increased goods produced were absorbed in the domestic market, because the people had more purchasing power. But this method cannot be used under the prevalent system in India.

 So our 'miracle man', who like a good politician had promised 'vikas' during the Bihar elections, will be compelled, like Modi and Kejriwal, to resort to stunts and jumlas. But sooner or later people will see through these gimmicks, making him very unpopular.

The Bihar exit polls

I do not agree with any of the exit polls of the Bihar elections which have appeared on T.V.

 I still maintain, as I have said in my earlier posts, that the Nitish Lalu Mahagathbandhan will sweep the polls with upto two third seats. In other words, it may get 150-160 seats.

 But let us see whether on 8th November I am proved right or wrong

The coming Bihar elections

Although I have a poor opinion of the AAP. I had predicted their overwhelming victory in the February, 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, and I was proved right.

 Now I predict an overwhelming victory for the JDU-RJD alliance in the coming Bihar Assembly elections to be held when the term of the present Assembly expires in November 2015. This is despite the fact that I have called the alliance unprincipled. Let me give my reasons.

 In most ( though not all ) states in India, including Bihar, voting is done broadly on the basis of caste and religion, as vote banks.

  The exception to this is when there is a wave, when voting cuts through caste and religious barriers. For example, the 'Garibi hatao' slogan created a wave in favour of Indira Gandhi. Similarly, on the assassination of Indira Gandhi, there was a sympathy wave in favour of Congress.

 In the May 2014 Lok Sabha elections, there was a ' Modi wave '. This was for two reasons, a positive and a negative. The positive factor was the 'vikas' slogan given by Modi, which created an impression that million of jobs will be created. This attracted the Indian youth, whose voting age had been reduced to 18 years, and they voted en masse for Modi, cutting through caste and religious lines. The negative factor was the disgust the Indian people felt towards th\e Congress when scam after scam was exposed.

 Within nine months of May 2014 this wave had totally dissipated, as the jobs were not there, and the Indian youth realized that they had been taken for a ride and left in the lurch. So in the February 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, the same BJP which had won all 7 Lok Sabha Delhi seats, was almost wiped out.

 Now let us come to Bihar.

In the May 2014 Lok Sabha elections BJP won almost all Lok Sabha seats. But, as I had said earlier, that was because there was a Modi wave. Now there is none. So voting will now be done on the traditional caste and religious basis.

 The upper castes ( brahmins, bhumihars, rajputs, kayasthas, etc ) will broadly vote for BJP. But they are collectively only 17-18% of the population. Since Ram Bilas Paswan and Manjhi have allied themselves to BJP, another 7-8% SC votes can be added to that. So the tally reaches a maximum of 25-26%.

 On the other hand, the RJD-JDU alliance, coupled with the 17-18% Muslims who will vote solidly against BJP ( thanks to love jihad, ghar wapasi, beef ban, and the vitriolic speeches of Mahant Adityanath and Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti ), is almost sure to get about 75% to 80% of the 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly, in view of the caste and religious combination in their favour

 A chart of the caste population in Bihar is given below :

Social engineering and alliance formation

Both the alliances- BJP led NDA alliance and Nitish Kumar-led alliance are trying social engineering. On 7 June 2015, Lalu Prasad Yadav announced RJD alliance with JD(U) for the elections. On 11 June 2015,Jitan Ram Manjhi announced his party Hindustani Awam Morcha alliance with BJP for the elections. In April 2015, Bihar chief Minister Nitish Kumar announced decision to include few more castes including Teli caste in list of Extremely Backward Class in Bihar In July 2015, Nitish Kumar announced 50 percent quota for OBC, EBC and SC/STs in all government contracts up to Rs 15 lakh. On 3 July 2015, BJP announced its seventh Morcha, called BJP OBC Morcha, keeping in mind the Bihar polls.

Castes of Bihar

Caste Population (%)

OBC/EBC 51% ( Yadavs -14%, Kurmis -4%, Koeris -8%,[32]

,( EBCs - 24% -includes Kushwaha-4%, Teli-3.2%)

Mahadalits* 10%

Dalits 6% (Paswans/Dusadh -4%)

Muslims 16.5%

Forward caste 15% (Bhumihar -6%, Brahmin-5%, Rajputs- 3%, Kayasth- 1%)

Adivasis(STs) 1.3%

Others 1% (include Christians,Sikhs,Jains)

As per, 2011 Census of India , Scheduled Castes constitute 16% of Bihar's 104 million population. The census identified 21 of 23 Dalit sub-castes as Mahadalits. They include Musahar, Bhuiyan, Dom, Chamar, Dhobi and Nat. Paswan caste was left out of the Mahadalit category. Adivasis (Scheduled Tribes) constitute around 1.3% of Bihar population. Tribals include Gond, Santhal and Tharu communities in Bihar.

Extremely Backward Class (EBCs) are also sometimes referred to as Most Backward Class(MBCs).

Justice Markandey Katju In Aamne Saamne

Interview with Anuradha Prasad of News24