Bihar Elections: Sweep in favour of the Mahagathbandhan

I predict not just a bare victory but a sweep in favour of the Lalu-Nitish alliance in the coming Bihar elections. This is based on simple mathematics.

As I had said in an earlier post, voting in most states in India, including Bihar, is on the basis of caste and religion. The exception to this rule is when there is a wave.

In the May 2014 elections there was a Modi wave, as people, particularly the youth, were captivated by the magic slogan of 'vikas', which promised millions of jobs to our huge population of unemployed youth, whose voting age had been reduced from 21 to 18 by a Constitutional amendment of 1988.

This slogan, however has proved hollow, as jobs have not been created, and the youth have been left high and dry. While there has been a lot of big talk, hardly anything has been done by Modi except stunts like 'Swatchata Abhiyan' ( I visited Varanasi yesterday and found it as dirty as ever, and I spoke to many citizens there who said the same ), Yoga Day, etc and meaningless foreign trips which must have cost a huge amount of money and whose end result is ' khoda pahaad, nikli chuhiya'.

So the Modi wave has totally dissipated, and now voting in Bihar will be on the traditional lines of caste and religion.

Here are the caste demographics of Bihar which I got from the net :

Population (%)

OBC/EBC 51% ( Yadavs -14%, Kurmis- 4%,[24][25]( EBCs - 30%[26][27][28][29][30] -includes

kushwahas - 6% Koeris -8%,[31] Teli-3.2%))

Mahadalits* + Dalits(SCs) 16%[32][33]

Muslims 16.9%[10]

Forward caste 15% [34](Bhumihar -3%, Brahmin-5%,[35] Rajputs- 6%, Kayasth- 1%)

Adivasis(STs) 1.3% [36][37]

Others 0.4% (include Christians,Sikhs,Jains)

As per, 2011 Census of India , Scheduled Castes constitute 16% of Bihar's 104 million population.[38] The census identified 21 of 23 Dalit sub-castes as Mahadalits.[39] Mahadalit community consists of the following sub castes - Bantar, Bauri, Bhogta, Bhuiya, Chaupal, Dabgar, Dom (Dhangad), Ghasi, Halalkhor, Hari (Mehtar, Bhangi), Kanjar, Kurariar, Lalbegi, Musahar, Nat, Pan (Swasi), Rajwar, Turi, Dhobi, Pasi, Chamar and Paswan (Dusadh).[40] Paswan caste was initially left out of the Mahadalit category.[41][42] Adivasis (Scheduled Tribes) constitute around 1.3% of Bihar population.[43][44] Tribals include Gond, Santhal and Tharu communities in Bihar.[45][46]

Extremely Backward Class (EBCs) are also sometimes referred to as Most Backward Class(MBCs). There are 130-odd EBC castes in Bihar.

Yadavs and Kurmis constituting 19% and Muslims about 17% will solidly vote for the Lalu-Nitish alliance, which makes it 36%. Muslims will vote for it ( despite Owaisi, who is regarded as a BJP vote splitter by Muslims, and who will therefore not be misled by him ) because Muslims are feeling very insecure after love jihad, ghar wapasi, speeches of Adityanath, Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti ( calling them haramzadas) and incidents like in Muzaffarnagar, Ballabhgarh, and the latest one at Dadri.. So they will solidly vote for the alliance.

A section of the other backward castes, say 8-10%, will also vote for the alliance, as Lalu has successfully described it as a fight between the backwards and the forward castes.

Thus the tally of the Nitish-Lalu aalliance comes to about 45% votes, which represents a sweep ( BJP got a majority in the Lok Sabha with only 31% votes )

As regards, the NDA, its support is from the upper castes, and a section of EBCs( also called MBCs ) and a section of dalits, because of Paswan, Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha.

The upper castes in Bihar, as can be seen from the above chart, are altogether only 15%. Paswan does not have the support of all the dalits ( who are divided into a large number of sub castes) in Bihar, unlike Mayawati who has the support of almost all the dalits in U.P. So he may get the NDA about 6-7% votes. Manjhi may get 7-8% MBC votes, and Kushwaha may get 4%votes.

Thus the total tally of NDA votes is 15+7+8+4=32%

There is clearly going to be a sweep in favour of the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar

Sweep away all feudal filth

I have often been asked by patriotic people, particularly the youth, what contribution they can make for India's upliftment from its present miserable plight.

 My answer is : help to sweep away all feudal filth, in the form of feudal and backward ideas and practices which have accumulated over the centuries, and are acting as shackles on our progress.

 Our national aim must be to abolish poverty, unemployment, malnourishment, lack of healthcare and good education, etc and make India a powerful, modern, highly industrialized country with its people enjoying a high standard of living

 For achieving this end a powerful cultural struggle must be launched by our patriotic, modern minded intelligentsia, who are the eyes of society, and without whom society is blind.

 What must you therefore do ? You must patiently spread scientific and rational thinking among the masses and attack feudal backward ideas and practices.

In particular I recommend the following :

1. Attack the caste system which is still strongly entrenched in the minds of most of our people, and which is a curse on our nation. The youth should go in for inter caste and inter religious marriages, in particular marriages between dalits and non dalits, despite objections and threats by your parents, relatives and caste members and caste panchayats.

2. While strongly upholding freedom of religion and secularism, tell people that all religions are superstitions, and the truth lies in science, which is constantly developing.

3. Criticize burqa and oral talaq, which are feudal backward practices and support complete equality between men and women. Condemn female foeticide as a barbaric practice

4. Criticize belief in astrology, which is pure superstition and humbug.

5. Criticize and expose babas who are hoodwinking the public.

6.Support the right to eat what one likes, including beef. Most of the world eats beef, so surely they are not wicked people. If some people say it is against Hindu culture explain to them that while there are many good things in our culture, there is much filth in it too, e.g. caste system.

7. Expose the present politicians in India who are mostly selfish rogues and rascals who have looted the country and have no genuine love for it, and run politics on the basis of caste and religion

The dark days ahead

" Hai maujazan ek kulzum-e-khoon kaash yahi ho

Aata hai abhi dekhiye kya kya mere agey "

-Mirza Ghalib

" A turbulent sea of blood is before me, I wish it were only so...

But see what all is coming in the times ahead "

This sher ( couplet ) of the great Urdu poet Ghalib is portentous and ominous for the coming days in India

Since 'vikas' has proved to be a fake, fraudulent and sham slogan, the only recourse for some people to retain their popularity will now be to instigate and organize large scale attacks and massacre of minorities, as Hitler had done to the Jews.

Since 80-90% Hindus are communal in India ( just as 80-90% Muslims are communal ), massacre of Muslims will be cheered and applauded by many Hindus, who are 80% of the Indian population, and who will shout ' Hurray ' when this is done, just as most Germans did when Jews were being persecuted in the Nazi era.

And of course it will be useful in the elections

Hari Om

Islam and Indian Muslims

 Islam spread from Spain to Indonesia because of its great message of equality. People who were oppressed converted to Islam as it gave them social emancipation. Only 5% conversions may have been forcible, but 95% were voluntary.

 In Bengal about 60% Hindus converted to Islam because the caste system there had become totally inhuman ( see the novels and stories of the great Bengali writer Sarat Chandra Chattopadhyaya ). . So the 'lower' caste people converted to Islam in large numbers. If people are treated like dogs they will surely embrace a religion which treats them as humans.

 If one reads Sarat Chandra Chattopadhyaya's short novel ' Palli Samaj ' ( also known as Gramin Samaj ) one will see how Muslims had social cohesion among themselves. If some Muslim fell ill or had some other trouble or calamity, other Muslims of the village would all rush to help him, but that rarely happened among Hindus. The same social cohesion was there among early Christians ( see Gibbon's ' Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire ' chapters 15-17 ).

 In Kashmir too there was horrible caste oppression ( see Kalhan's ' Rajtarangani ' translated into English by Ranjit Pandit ), and so the vast majority of Kashmiris voluntarily converted to Islam to get social emancipation.

 So Islam, by its message and practice of equality was of great benefit to mankind at one time.

 But what is Islam as practised in India today ? The truth is that the so called ' upper caste ' Muslims, the ' ashrafs ', i.e. Syeds, Sheikhs and Pathans, regard themselves as superior and look down on Ansaris ( bunkars or weavers ), Qureshis ( butchers  or kasais ), Abbasis ( water carriers ), Gaddis, Darzis, Telis,  etc

  When I was in Allahabad my daughter had a school friend who was a Syed. When she grew up I went one day to her parents and said that I regarded their daughter as my daughter, and so could I suggest a match for her for marriage. They agreed. I found an Ansari boy whose family had a huge carpet business in Bhadohi, which is a carpet belt near Varanasi. and I suggested his name. The parents told me ' Sorry, magar hum chamaron mein shaadi nahin karte ". I was shocked, and told them that I had thought there is no caste system among Muslims. They replied that they had to live in their ' biradari ', and so could not marry their daughter to low caste Muslims.

 I may mention another incident. In Banda, U.P. there was a dalit young man who fell in love with a Muslim girl. That Muslim girl's family were Rajput converts. The young man converted to Islam to marry the girl, but the parents and relatives told him they would kill him if he does not stop meeting the girl. " Humne apna mazhab badla hai, jaat nahin ", they said.

 In a lighter note I may mention an incident in Pakistan, which was related to me by a relative of mine in the Indian Foreign Service who often dealt with Pakistan affairs.

 There was a Muslim gentleman in Pakistan whose surname was Chauhan. His son fell in love with a Muslim girl, and wanted to marry her, but for some reason the girl's parents refused. Mr. Chauhan then told his son " Hum Chauhan hain. Hum log ladki ke parents ki permission nahin lete, ladki utha laata hain " ( an obvious reference to the abduction of Sanjogita by Prithviraj Chauhan )

  This is the reality of Indian Islam today.

Is this what the Prophet taught ?

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Guru Nanak and the Sikhs

I addressed a huge gathering of lawyers for about 2 hours in the Punjab and Haryana High Court at Chandigarh on 28th September.

 Among the various topics I spoke on was the caste discrimination among Sikhs ( there were many Sikhs in the crowd ).

The Sikh religion preached by Guru Nanak was a revolt against the inhuman caste system. But do the present Sikhs follow his teachings ?

The dominant section of Sikhs are the Jat Sikhs, who are also big land holders. They look down on Mazhabi ( scheduled caste ) Sikhs, who are usually poor, and there is no intermarriage between the two. The gurudwaras of Jat and Mazhabi Sikhs are often separate, not only in India but even in England.

 In the Indian army, the Sikh Regiment has Jat Sikhs, while the Sikh Light Infantry has Mazhabi Sikhs.

 I was told that one Mazhabi Sikh, Nirmal Singh, who is known to be very pious and erudite, was refused the post of Jathedar, the highest post among Sikhs ( like the Pope among Catholics ) in the Golden Temple ( Darbara Saheb ) only because he was a Mazhabi Sikh.

 Is this what Guru Nanak taught ?

Hari Om

India's quest for a permanent UNSC seat

India has been demanding a permanent seat in the U.N. Security Council since long. We have a population of 1250 million, while England with 62 million and France with 66 million have permanent seats. So our demand seems to be justified.

 But the truth is that we will not be given a permanent seat for many many years, however much we may shout and scream about it. Why ?

Some say that it is because of China. Others attribute it to Pakistan. The truth however is something else.

 The truth is that as long as we are a poor nation we will never be given a permanent seat in the U.N. Security.

 The way of the world is that the poor are never given respect. Does anyone give respect to a beggar ? The poor are only kicked around in the world, and as long as we remain poor we will be kicked around by the world community.

 The truth is that Westerners look down on Indians, not because the colour of our skin is black or brown, but because our country is poor. Of course the Westerners are too sophisticated, and so will not say so openly, but their conduct reveals it.

 When China and Japan were poor countries, their people were called 'yellow races ' by the Westerners. Today China and Japan are highly industrialized, powerful nations, and now nobody dares to call them that.

 So if we want respect in the world community and a permanent seat in the UNSC, we have to make India a powerful, highly industrialized and highly prosperous country with its people enjoying a high standard of living.. All patriotic people must think out ways and means of achieving that end.

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/india-united-nations-permanent-unsc-membership-unga-cold-war/story/1/6455.html

Appeal to non Hindus to keep one day fast during Navratra.

Although I am an atheist, I respect people of all religions, and have always strongly supported freedom of religion.

  When I was in California, U.S. A. ( I was in North America from January to July, 2015 ) the Ramzan month commenced.

 I have been keeping one day fast during Ramzan for several years, so this year also I decided to keep it. I informed some Hindus settled in USA  about my decision. They said that they would also keep one day fast during Ramzan, and asked me to fix the date. I fixed 4th July as it was a Saturday and so a non working day, and was also the American Independence Day, and I put up a facebook post requesting non Muslims all over the world to keep one day fast on that date, as a mark of our respect and solidarity with our Muslim brothers and sisters.

 These Hindus informed Shaista Ali, wife of Syed Ali, President and CEO of Cavium, a multi billion dollar company in the Silicon Valley with branches all over the world, about my decision. Shaistaji, telephoned me and requested that the iftaar on 4th July should be held at her residence, to which I agreed.

Since sehri had to be by 4.13 a.m. ( for Shias ) on that day ( 4.36 a.m. for Sunnis ) my Hindu friends.and I got up at 3.30 a.m. and quickly had some eggs, milk, bread and water, and thereafter till 8.35 p.m. we ate and drank nothing. An excellent iftaar and dinner was served at Shaistaji's house which is on a hill in Saratoga.

 Now navratra is beginning on 13th Octobwer, and will go on till the 23rd ( the calender is given below ).

 I appeal to all non Hindus all over the world, and especially in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh to keep one day fast during navratra. They may consult some Hindu friend about what can be eaten on that day and when. This will be just as a token of respect and solidarity with their Hindu brothers and sisters, and not that they will be converted to Hinduism

http://www.drikpanchang.com/navratri/ashwin-shardiya-navratri-dates.html

Taslima Nasreen is brave but stupid

 In my reply to a comment on one of my earlier posts I called Taslima Nasreen brave but stupid. Some people have asked me to explain.

I regard her as brave because she bravely spoke out against atrocities on Hindus in Bangladesh in her novel 'Lajja '.I am opposed to atrocities on anyone, whether Hindu, Muslim, Sikh, Christian, etc

 However I also call her stupid because she attacks religion without understanding the social conditions which give rise to it.

 Like Taslima, I too am an atheist, and I too believe that all religions are superstitions.. But unlike her, I understand that there are certain social conditions which give rise to religion, e.g. lack of scientific understanding of the objective world, poverty, exploitation, and the chance factor in our lives. Without eliminating these conditions an attempt to suppress religion forcibly will only make people more fanatic and bigoted.

 Religion first arose everywhere due to men's ignorance about nature. Almost all gods everywhere were initially nature gods, e.g the Vedic gods Indra, Agni, Surya, etc or the Greek and Roman Gods, Jupiter, Apollo, Mars, Poseidon, etc.These were personification of natural forces which could benefit man or harm him. For instance, if there is timely rain the agricultural crop would be good, but if there was drought, there would be famine. So men conceived of a rain god, Indra, who had to be propitiated to please him and avoid his wrath.

 Much later the concept of one god alone arose in the Jewish religion and Islam, where God represented the Perfect Man, who did not have the failings of the ordinary man e.g. he never fell sick, was never born and will never die, and is all powerful, etc

 Why do people need religion even today ?

 The poor people, who comprise 75-80% of all people, need religion as a psychological support, because their lives are so miserable that they would go mad if they did not have religion as a consoler and a balm ( some call it an opium ).

 The affluent too need religion because while they are rich today, they may become poor tomorrow. Prosperous businessmen today may become bankrupt in the future ( due to various causes ). Employees may lose their jobs.The chance factor is so powerful today that we cannot control our own lives, and so we believe that some supernatural entity is controlling our lives, which must be propitiated. This is also why people believe in astrology, palmistry, etc which are all superstitions and humbug.

 It is true that today the chance factor is very powerful in our lives. We plan something, but something else happens. But this is due to the low level of development of science as of yet in the world as compared to what it will be 100 or 200 years hence.  Science would then have developed so much that we will be able to control our lives, and then there will be no need of religion.

 100 years hence or so there will be no poverty among humans, because modern industry is so powerful and so big that enough wealth can be generated by it to give a decent life to everyone in the world.

 So instead of directly attacking religion, as Taslima does, i attack the social conditions which give rise to it, while upholding everyone's freedom to practise his/her religion

My vision of the future

Often people have accused me of being negative, of criticizing everyone and everything, while proposing no positive alternative. So let me state my positive ideas :

As I have repeatedly said, a crisis is building up in India, due to massive poverty, unemployment, malnourishment, lack of healthcare and good education, price rise, etc and there seems to be no solution to our problems within the present system. All our state institutions--Parliament, the executive, the judiciary, etc seem to have collapsed and become hollow and empty shells, and so the solution to our problems lie outside the system, which means a revolution. But what will be done after this revolution ? Let me present my broad outlines

 1. We must have political leaders who are genuinely patriotic and who work for the welfare of the people

 These leaders will be men( and women ) who have no special privileges, no secret foreign bank accounts. They will be men and women of the highest integrity, for without that they would be like most of our present politicians, who indulge in empty talk about helping the poor but instead amass fortunes for themselves or their families.

One of my ideals for such leaders is Robespierre, the great leader in the French Revolution of 1789 ( see my blog 'Robespierre 'on my blog 'justicekatju.blogspot.in )

Nobody ever questioned Robespierre's personal integrity, whereas the financial integrity of some of his colleagues in the Revolution like Danton was always suspect. Robespierre never benefited personally in any way by being one of the leaders of the French Revolution. When he died he left behind him hardly any assets.

 His secretary, Pierre Villiers, has written in his Memoirs " Several times I have known him to refuse offers of money that required from him no return, not even thanks, and if sometimes I allowed myself to insist on his accepting, he abused me " .

People will accept the leadership of such leaders if the leaders suffer the same privations which the ordinary people are suffering. People will accept sufferings if they know that their leaders are suffering personally the same way as themselves, eating the same simple food, and living the same kind of difficult lives which they are enduring.

Who will be these leaders and where will they come from I do not know. But surely despite all the corruption, selfishness, low ethics, and stupidity all around us today there are some patriotic, modern minded  and honest people among us

2. These leaders must set up a 4 year or 5 year national scientific plan for reconstructing the economy and raising the standard of living of the masses. This must of course be done with the help of top level scientists, engineers and managers. The plan will include setting up thousands of industries, high standard educational institutions, technical institutes and healthcare centres free of cost for the masses all over India. Where will the capital for this come from ? The biggest capital is the power of organizing the masses. The masses will voluntarily and enthusiastically give their labour once they realize that their leaders are dedicated people who genuinely wish to abolish poverty, unemployment, etc and are aiming at raising the standard of living of the masses.

 Private enterprize will have a place in this plan, for individual initiative will be needed, but it will have a subordinate role, and cannot be allowed to override the welfare of the masses

3. But if thousands of industries are set up how will the goods they manufacture be sold ? At present people are too poor and do not have the purchasing power. So we will have to raise the purchasing power of the masses. How will that be done ?

 It will be done in this way : the government will fix the prices of most commodities, and then steadily reduce their prices, say by 5-10% every 2 years or so. In this way the worker will be able to steadily buy more goods with the same wage because prices are falling, and so his real wage is going up ( wages are relative to the price index ). In this way the market will keep steadily expanding, and simultaneously industrial ( and agricultural ) production can be stepped up, and the increased goods produced will be absorbed in the indigenous market, instead of there being  overproduction and a glut.

 We have to mainly depend on our own indigenous market for stability, because dependence on foreign markets is very precarious, as they may be cut off by some other country, or there may be a recession in the country to which we sell our goods, causing our own export industries to close down. No doubt we must have some exports ( to earn foreign exchange for buying some machinery which may not be produced indigenously, and which may be required for our plans,), but that should be much less than supplying our domestic market.

4. Simultaneously with fulfilling the national plan, a powerful cultural drive must be launched by our leaders to combat feudal and backward ideas and practices such as casteism, communalism and superstitions, and spread scientific and rational ideas to every nook and corner of the country. This requires a great deal of patient persuasion over a long period, maybe decades, because it is more difficult to change the minds of people than change physical things. At present most of our people are steeped in casteism, communalism and superstitions which they have inherited over the centuries. To change their minds and habits of thinking is an enormous task. I have often said that 90% of our people are fools. That was of course not to denigrate or demoralize them, but to state harsh realities. It is the patriotic duty of the 10% enlightened section of our countrymen to patiently educate the 90%, spread scientific ideas among the masses, and uplift their mental level so that they too become part of enlightened India.

 These are only my broad general ideas, and I do not claim that they are perfect. I welcome any criticism, provided it is in polite language

The Truth about Bose

Those who have been offended by my comments on Subhas Chandra Bose should consider just one simple matter :

The Japanese armed forces came all the way from Japan to Singapore and Burma, and were fighting the British on the border of Burma and India ( using the INA ).

 Did they do so to have a picnic, or to conquer the countries of East and South Asia and turn them into their colonies, that is, as  markets and sources of raw materials for the growing Japanese industry ?

 If the latter is accepted, and it must be accepted if we have even a little brains, then why would Japan have given independence to India if they had defeated the British, rather than turning it into a Japanese colony ?

 It is obvious that the Japanese fascist imperialists were using Bose and the INA for their own imperial purpose of conquering India and turning it into a Japanese colony.

 Had they defeated the British, the Japanese would either have bumped off Bose, as his utility would have been over for them, or made him as a puppet ' Head of State ', the way they made the last Chinese Emperor, Pu Yi, ' Head of Manchukuo '.

The INA was fighting with Japanese weapons. If the Japanese design ( of making India their colony ) had been opposed by Bose, they had simply to cut off arms supply to the INA and that would have been an end to it.

 Bose knew of the Japanese atrocities in the Andaman Islands, but he never protested against it to the Japanese, knowing he could not afford to annoy his masters