http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/China-economic-slowdown-World-markets-plunge-on-fears-of-weaker-global-growth/articleshow/48763468.cms
The World Economic Recession
For quite some time there has been an economic recession all over the world. From time to time we hear of a recovery, but in fact there has not been, and there is unlikely to be, a genuine recovery of the world economy for a long time. I will try to explain.
An economic recession is a feature of an industrial, not agrarian economy. In agrarian economies, too, there were catastrophies, but these were due to natural calamities like drought, epidemics, etc. An economic recession is a feature peculiar to industrial economies.
There have been recessions every eight or ten years ever since the Industrial Revolution of the 18th Century in Western Europe. These, however, were followed shortly thereafter by recoveries. But there has been one Great Depression which lasted from 1929 to 1939, and was ended only by the Second World War (in which 50 million lives were lost) which generated the massive demand for armaments, supplies to armies and war affected civilian populations, and capital for reconstruction, etc. This Great Depression caused havoc in large parts of the globe, particularly in the developed countries.
We are now witnessing a persistent, and apparently unending, world economic recession, and its sweep is wider than that of the Depression of 1929, because while the latter affected mainly North America and Europe, the former is affecting the whole world, because while before the Second World War ( 1939-1945 ) many countries ( including India ) were largely unindustrialized, there has been a certain level of industrialization in most countries since then.
WHAT IS THE CAUSE OF SUCH ECONOMIC RECESSION OR DEPRESSION?
The principal cause of an economic recession (or depression) is lack of sales, which in turn is due to lack of purchasing power in the masses. There are other causes also, but these are only incidental, and not the main cause.
A large part of the world’s population is so poor that it hardly has sufficient purchasing power. Even in the developed countries there are many poor people.
Apart from the above, as the industrial economy develops, in the process industries tend to become larger and larger, to effect economy of scale, and more and more capital intensive ( that is, labour being replaced by machinery ). This is necessary for industries to face the competition in the market, otherwise their rivals will become larger and more capital intensive and drive them out of the market, by underselling them. This process is inevitable in most industries, but it leads to large scale unemployment, since many workers in a labor intensive industry are laid off when it becomes capital intensive. This generates unemployment.
Let me explain. There is competition between businessmen in the market. Let us take a simple illustration. Suppose A has a shop selling a loaf of bread for Rs.20. Next to his shop is the shop of B selling the same size and quality loaf for Rs. 18. What will happen ? The customers of A will gradually leave him and become the customers of B, and B will eliminate A by underselling him. Thus one businessman eliminates another not by tanks, guns or bombs but by underselling him.
Now the same thing happens on the national and even international level.
To reduce his sale price a businessman has to grow larger ( to effect economy of scale ) and to introduce new technology. This is because cost of labour is a big chunk of the total cost of production. So if the cost of labour is less, the cost of production is less, and if the cost of production is less, the businessman can sell at a cheaper price, and thus eliminate his business rival.. By introducing new and labour saving technology in his plant, the businessman can cut down his labour costs, and thereby his cost of production.
Suppose a manufacturer had 500 workers working in his plant. With the advance of technology he may get a new machinery which requires only 100 workers to produce the same amount of goods which he was producing earlier. This means 400 workers will become unemployed. Even if 100 of these 400 workers can get jobs elsewhere this still leaves 300 workers unemployed. When we enlarge our scene (because the same process is inevitable in most industries) we find large scale unemployment is being generated everywhere.
Now the worker, apart from being a producer, is also a consumer. Of course a worker in a steel factory does not consume steel. But he and his family consume food, clothes, shoes and various other articles. When he becomes unemployed his purchasing power becomes drastically reduced. And when unemployment is generated on a large scale, the market correspondingly contracts on a large scale, and this leads to a recession.
Thus we see that the very dynamics of an unregulated industrial economy is that by the very inevitable process of its growth it keeps destroying its market.
The goods produced have to be sold. But how can they be sold when people have lost their purchasing power (due to widespread unemployment)?
Mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption. By taking purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers the industrialists deny to themselves the effective demand for their products that would justify reinvestment of their capital accumulation in new plants (which would also provide employment ).
Before the Great Depression of 1929 high level of employment was generated by high level of debt in the form of mortgage debts (for housing etc.), loans to buy cars and other consumer goods, brokers loans (for buying shares, etc.). The same thing happened in recent times. But this cannot continue endlessly. A time comes when people cannot repay their debts (due to unemployment or cut in real wages). Then debtors curtail their consumption, which reduces demand, and the producing units have to close down or drastically cut production.
In modern economies, most businesses require loans for their normal operations. Banks normally retain a small fraction of their deposits (5% or less) and give the rest as loans to borrowers. When the banking sector does not work properly (because of defaults by loanees) businesses do not easily get loans, and consequently they have to curtail their production and lay off workers. As they curtail production they require less raw materials and other supplies. Hence their suppliers have to reduce their output and lay off their workers. The suppliers to these suppliers have to do the same.Thus, this can set off a chain reaction.
If manufacturers cannot sell they cannot generate enough revenue to repay their loans. The business goes bankrupt and the bank finds in its hand non performing assets. Hence banks want to lend less. This becomes a vicious cycle.
Depositors get scared because some banks have collapsed due to the non performing assets. Hence they start withdrawing their money, and more banks collapse.
The economic recession is thus caused by the reduction of purchasing power in the masses which is due to the very dynamics of unregulated growth. The productive capacity has been enhanced enormously, but the vast majority of people are too poor to buy.
The problem, therefore, is not how to increase production, but how to increase the purchasing power of the masses. Production can be increased easily several times because there are tens of thousands of engineers, technicians, etc., and there are immense reserves of raw materials in India. But the goods produced have to be sold, and how can they be sold when the people are poor or unemployed, and thus have very little purchasing power?
The problem is also not how to increase demand. The demand is there, but people do not have the money for purchasing goods. In India, for instance, 75% people live on bare subsistence incomes. This may not even be sufficient for buying necessities, like food or medicines, what to say of durable consumer goods like motor cars, refrigerators, computers, air conditioners and other goods.
The solution to the economic crisis can only be by raising the purchasing power of the masses. How this is to be done requires a great deal of discussion and creative thinking , and all serious thinkers must now address this main problem facing our country, and indeed the whole world.
The situation in India today is that while we have recently increased the number of billionaires in our country, the poor have become poorer and even the middle class is finding it difficult to make two ends meet because of rising prices. This is a dangerous trend and if continued is going to lead to widespread social turmoil and social unrest. It is totally unfair to the vast masses of our people and it will not be tolerated very long.
Society owes subsistence to all its citizens either in procuring work for them on a reasonable wage, or in ensuring a livelihood to those who are unable to work.
As stated by the great French thinker Rousseau in his book 'Discourse on Inequality' : “Nothing can be farther from the law of nature,however we define it, than that a handful of people be gorged with luxuries, while the starving multitude lacks the necessities of life.”
Unfortunately, most people are silent about this terrible plight of our people because those who should be speaking out are mostly beneficiaries of the present system, and hence do not want to disturb it.
It is time now that the patriotic intellectuals speak out on these issues.
Posted by Justice Markandey Katju at Sunday, November 23, 2014
The World Economic Recession
For quite some time there has been an economic recession all over the world. From time to time we hear of a recovery, but in fact there has not been, and there is unlikely to be, a genuine recovery of the world economy for a long time. I will try to explain.
An economic recession is a feature of an industrial, not agrarian economy. In agrarian economies, too, there were catastrophies, but these were due to natural calamities like drought, epidemics, etc. An economic recession is a feature peculiar to industrial economies.
There have been recessions every eight or ten years ever since the Industrial Revolution of the 18th Century in Western Europe. These, however, were followed shortly thereafter by recoveries. But there has been one Great Depression which lasted from 1929 to 1939, and was ended only by the Second World War (in which 50 million lives were lost) which generated the massive demand for armaments, supplies to armies and war affected civilian populations, and capital for reconstruction, etc. This Great Depression caused havoc in large parts of the globe, particularly in the developed countries.
We are now witnessing a persistent, and apparently unending, world economic recession, and its sweep is wider than that of the Depression of 1929, because while the latter affected mainly North America and Europe, the former is affecting the whole world, because while before the Second World War ( 1939-1945 ) many countries ( including India ) were largely unindustrialized, there has been a certain level of industrialization in most countries since then.
WHAT IS THE CAUSE OF SUCH ECONOMIC RECESSION OR DEPRESSION?
The principal cause of an economic recession (or depression) is lack of sales, which in turn is due to lack of purchasing power in the masses. There are other causes also, but these are only incidental, and not the main cause.
A large part of the world’s population is so poor that it hardly has sufficient purchasing power. Even in the developed countries there are many poor people.
Apart from the above, as the industrial economy develops, in the process industries tend to become larger and larger, to effect economy of scale, and more and more capital intensive ( that is, labour being replaced by machinery ). This is necessary for industries to face the competition in the market, otherwise their rivals will become larger and more capital intensive and drive them out of the market, by underselling them. This process is inevitable in most industries, but it leads to large scale unemployment, since many workers in a labor intensive industry are laid off when it becomes capital intensive. This generates unemployment.
Let me explain. There is competition between businessmen in the market. Let us take a simple illustration. Suppose A has a shop selling a loaf of bread for Rs.20. Next to his shop is the shop of B selling the same size and quality loaf for Rs. 18. What will happen ? The customers of A will gradually leave him and become the customers of B, and B will eliminate A by underselling him. Thus one businessman eliminates another not by tanks, guns or bombs but by underselling him.
Now the same thing happens on the national and even international level.
To reduce his sale price a businessman has to grow larger ( to effect economy of scale ) and to introduce new technology. This is because cost of labour is a big chunk of the total cost of production. So if the cost of labour is less, the cost of production is less, and if the cost of production is less, the businessman can sell at a cheaper price, and thus eliminate his business rival.. By introducing new and labour saving technology in his plant, the businessman can cut down his labour costs, and thereby his cost of production.
Suppose a manufacturer had 500 workers working in his plant. With the advance of technology he may get a new machinery which requires only 100 workers to produce the same amount of goods which he was producing earlier. This means 400 workers will become unemployed. Even if 100 of these 400 workers can get jobs elsewhere this still leaves 300 workers unemployed. When we enlarge our scene (because the same process is inevitable in most industries) we find large scale unemployment is being generated everywhere.
Now the worker, apart from being a producer, is also a consumer. Of course a worker in a steel factory does not consume steel. But he and his family consume food, clothes, shoes and various other articles. When he becomes unemployed his purchasing power becomes drastically reduced. And when unemployment is generated on a large scale, the market correspondingly contracts on a large scale, and this leads to a recession.
Thus we see that the very dynamics of an unregulated industrial economy is that by the very inevitable process of its growth it keeps destroying its market.
The goods produced have to be sold. But how can they be sold when people have lost their purchasing power (due to widespread unemployment)?
Mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption. By taking purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers the industrialists deny to themselves the effective demand for their products that would justify reinvestment of their capital accumulation in new plants (which would also provide employment ).
Before the Great Depression of 1929 high level of employment was generated by high level of debt in the form of mortgage debts (for housing etc.), loans to buy cars and other consumer goods, brokers loans (for buying shares, etc.). The same thing happened in recent times. But this cannot continue endlessly. A time comes when people cannot repay their debts (due to unemployment or cut in real wages). Then debtors curtail their consumption, which reduces demand, and the producing units have to close down or drastically cut production.
In modern economies, most businesses require loans for their normal operations. Banks normally retain a small fraction of their deposits (5% or less) and give the rest as loans to borrowers. When the banking sector does not work properly (because of defaults by loanees) businesses do not easily get loans, and consequently they have to curtail their production and lay off workers. As they curtail production they require less raw materials and other supplies. Hence their suppliers have to reduce their output and lay off their workers. The suppliers to these suppliers have to do the same.Thus, this can set off a chain reaction.
If manufacturers cannot sell they cannot generate enough revenue to repay their loans. The business goes bankrupt and the bank finds in its hand non performing assets. Hence banks want to lend less. This becomes a vicious cycle.
Depositors get scared because some banks have collapsed due to the non performing assets. Hence they start withdrawing their money, and more banks collapse.
The economic recession is thus caused by the reduction of purchasing power in the masses which is due to the very dynamics of unregulated growth. The productive capacity has been enhanced enormously, but the vast majority of people are too poor to buy.
The problem, therefore, is not how to increase production, but how to increase the purchasing power of the masses. Production can be increased easily several times because there are tens of thousands of engineers, technicians, etc., and there are immense reserves of raw materials in India. But the goods produced have to be sold, and how can they be sold when the people are poor or unemployed, and thus have very little purchasing power?
The problem is also not how to increase demand. The demand is there, but people do not have the money for purchasing goods. In India, for instance, 75% people live on bare subsistence incomes. This may not even be sufficient for buying necessities, like food or medicines, what to say of durable consumer goods like motor cars, refrigerators, computers, air conditioners and other goods.
The solution to the economic crisis can only be by raising the purchasing power of the masses. How this is to be done requires a great deal of discussion and creative thinking , and all serious thinkers must now address this main problem facing our country, and indeed the whole world.
The situation in India today is that while we have recently increased the number of billionaires in our country, the poor have become poorer and even the middle class is finding it difficult to make two ends meet because of rising prices. This is a dangerous trend and if continued is going to lead to widespread social turmoil and social unrest. It is totally unfair to the vast masses of our people and it will not be tolerated very long.
Society owes subsistence to all its citizens either in procuring work for them on a reasonable wage, or in ensuring a livelihood to those who are unable to work.
As stated by the great French thinker Rousseau in his book 'Discourse on Inequality' : “Nothing can be farther from the law of nature,however we define it, than that a handful of people be gorged with luxuries, while the starving multitude lacks the necessities of life.”
Unfortunately, most people are silent about this terrible plight of our people because those who should be speaking out are mostly beneficiaries of the present system, and hence do not want to disturb it.
It is time now that the patriotic intellectuals speak out on these issues.
Posted by Justice Markandey Katju at Sunday, November 23, 2014
Sebelumnya perkenalkan nama saya Rahmad Bastian di jawa tengah ingin menceritakan kepada semua teman-teman bahwa saya yg dulunya orang yg paling susah kampungku,buat makan aja harus ngutan dulu ama tetangga itupun kalau ada yg mau ngasi,semakin saya berusaha semakin susah juga dapat pekerjaan dan selama saya ingin berbuat baik kepada orang lain semakin banyak pula yang benci ama saya dan cuma dianggap orang rendah,miskin,tidak punya apa-apa. Maka dari itu saya akhirnya bertekat untuk pergi mencari dukun yang bisa merubah nasib saya disuatu hari saya bertemu sama orang yang pernah dibantu ama AKI ROTAK dan dia memberikan nomer AKI ROTAK ,dia juga bilan kepada saya kalau AKI ROTAK bisa membantu orang yang lagi kesusahan,dan saya tidak berpikir panjang lebar lagi saya langsun menghubungi AKI ROTAK dengan senan hati AKI ROTAK ingin membantu saya dengan jalan togel,dan alhamdulillah saya sudah menang togel yang ke3 kalinya.setelah keberhasilan ini rencana saya ama keluarga ingin buka usaha demi untu kebutuhan keluarga yang tercinta sekali lagi makasih ya aki atas bantuanya jasa aki tidak akan perna saya lupakan.bagi teman-teman diluar sana yang ingin seperti saya silahkan hubungi AKI ROTAK di 082388316533 dan saya sangat bersyukur kepada allah swt karna melalui bantuan AKI ROTAK kini kehidupan saya sudah jauh lebih baik dari sebelumnya,ingat kesempatan tidak akan datan untuk yg kedua kalinya.
ReplyDeleteSaya sekeluarga mengucapkan banyak trima kasih kepada AKI MUPENG karena atas bantuannyalah saya bisa menang togel dan nomor gaib hasil ritual yang di berikan AKI MUPENG bener-bener dijamin tembus dan saat sekarang ini kehidupan saya sekeluarga sudah jauh lebih baik dari sebelumnya itu semua berkat bantuan AKI kini hutang-hutang saya sudah pada lunas semua dan.sekarang saya sudah buka usaha sendiri. jika anda mau bukti bukan rekayasa silahkan hubungi/sms AKI MUPENG di 0852 9445 0976 insya allah angka beliau di jamin tembus dan beliau akan menbantu anda selama 3x putaran berturut-turut akan memenangkan angka togel dan ingat kesempatan tidak datang 2x,trima kasih
DeleteSaya ingin menyampaikan kepada seluruh TKI yang bekerja di negeri orang saya ibu hermawati seorang TKI DI MALAYSIA pengen pulang ke indo tapi gak ada ongkos sempat saya putus asah apalagi dengan keadaan susah gaji suami itupun buat makan sedangkan hutang banyak kebetulan suami saya buka-buka internet mendapatkan nomor MBAH RONO katanya bisa bantu orang melunasi hutang melalui jalan TOGEL dengan keadaan susah jadi saya coba hubungi MBAH RONO dan minta angka bocoran MALAYSIA angka yang di berikan 4D TOTO ternyata betul-betul tembus 100% bagi saudarah-saudara di indo mau di luar negeri apabila punya masalah hutang sudah lama belum lunas jangan putus asah beliau bisa membantu meringankan masalah anda hubungi MBAH RONO di nomor (_085_340_489-469_) ini asli bukan rekayasa atau silahkan buktikan sendiri...
DeleteSaya ingin menyampaikan kepada seluruh TKI yang bekerja di negeri orang saya ibu hermawati seorang TKI DI MALAYSIA pengen pulang ke indo tapi gak ada ongkos sempat saya putus asah apalagi dengan keadaan susah gaji suami itupun buat makan sedangkan hutang banyak kebetulan suami saya buka-buka internet mendapatkan nomor MBAH RONO katanya bisa bantu orang melunasi hutang melalui jalan TOGEL dengan keadaan susah jadi saya coba hubungi MBAH RONO dan minta angka bocoran MALAYSIA angka yang di berikan 4D TOTO ternyata betul-betul tembus 100% bagi saudarah-saudara di indo mau di luar negeri apabila punya masalah hutang sudah lama belum lunas jangan putus asah beliau bisa membantu meringankan masalah anda hubungi MBAH RONO di nomor (_085_340_489-469_) ini asli bukan rekayasa atau silahkan buktikan sendiri
saya pendatang baru di ROOM ini ingin mengucapkan terima kasih banyak kepada Aki Sholeh Paty , berkat bantuan No togel 4Dnya 1011 yang aki berikan ternyata benar2 tembus, saya tidak tau harus berbuat apa untuk membalas kebaikan AKI,awalnya saya kurang yakin dengan angka yang MBAH berikan, tapi ternyata alhamdulillah saya menang 4D lagi dan sionya, sudah berapa banyak peramal yang saya hubungi tidak ada satupun yang tembus malahan hutang-hutang saya bertambah banyak,kini kehidupan saya jauh lebih sukses dari pada sebelumnya ini semua berkat bantuan AKI SHOLEH PATY,bagi teman-teman pembeli kupon putih yang tidak pernah merasakan kemenangan 4D silahkan hubungi Aki Sholeh Paty di nomor : 0852-4466-9169-dan angka yang di berikan AKI SHOLEH PATY dalam7 putaran ini tidak perna meleset,anda jangan mudah tergiur dengan janji-janji saatnya kita perlu bukti hanya AKI SHOLEH PATY yang menjamin 100% kemenangan.kalau mau bukti hubungi sekarang. SEMOGA.JP
Delete• لالله�أشهدألاإله إلاالله،وأشهدأن محمدرسوالله صلى الله عليه وسلموعليكومالله�أشهدألاإله
saya pendatang baru di ROOM ini ingin mengucapkan terima kasih banyak kepada Aki Sholeh Paty , berkat bantuan No togel 4Dnya 1011 yang aki berikan ternyata benar2 tembus, saya tidak tau harus berbuat apa untuk membalas kebaikan AKI,awalnya saya kurang yakin dengan angka yang MBAH berikan, tapi ternyata alhamdulillah saya menang 4D lagi dan sionya, sudah berapa banyak peramal yang saya hubungi tidak ada satupun yang tembus malahan hutang-hutang saya bertambah banyak,kini kehidupan saya jauh lebih sukses dari pada sebelumnya ini semua berkat bantuan AKI SHOLEH PATY,bagi teman-teman pembeli kupon putih yang tidak pernah merasakan kemenangan 4D silahkan hubungi Aki Sholeh Paty di nomor : 0852-4466-9169-dan angka yang di berikan AKI SHOLEH PATY dalam7 putaran ini tidak perna meleset,anda jangan mudah tergiur dengan janji-janji saatnya kita perlu bukti hanya AKI SHOLEH PATY yang menjamin 100% kemenangan.kalau mau bukti hubungi sekarang. SEMOGA.JP
• لالله�أشهدألاإله إلاالله،وأشهدأن محمدرسوالله صلى الله عليه وسلموعليكومالله�أشهدألاإله
The easiest way by which the government can increase the purchasing power of people who could give a boost to the economy is by removing all people up to 12 Lakhs per year from the income tax burden totally. To offset the income loss, the government may raise the percentage of tax for the higher income group individuals to as high as 50% while keeping the corporate income tax at the prevailing rates. The requirement for filing income tax returns also should be eliminated for those who are not IT payers. This will benefit the nation in several ways. Firstly, the disposable incomes in the hands of people with regular incomes would increase enhancing demand for so many products and services. Secondly, the useless work load of the IT staff would get reduced and they would be in a position now to devote more time to the IT returns of the higher income groups. Government should creatively think to provide incentives to people who are big spenders rather than big savers. The concept of saving money should be for the lower income groups and not for the higher income groups! There are many other things a government can do if they want the nation to prosper! Whatever it could be, now a time has come for those in the government to think big rather than think like old time misers!
ReplyDelete@RajanCMathew---Your idea does have some sense-but the problem is in our country a very small section of our population is under Direct Tax Net.For this reason,govt increases service taxes and other indirect taxes in every financial year.So i am not sure whether the exemption limit could go upto 12L/year.You have told about retaining the corporate tax level to present level-but if we are not able to keep it lower investment capital will leave our country.those who are in high income groups are also helping the economy as their savings are being circulated in the market in the form of loans,capitals-so i donot think they should be taxed more.In France Hollande experimented with high tax rate for the rich but it somehow backfired.I also think the interest rate of deposits should remain within 7% as that would enable banks to provide cheap loans.I am not interested in creating credit bubble.But small scale industry and rural agricultural sector need cheap loan as they cannot borrow from outside like the big industrialist groups.Govt is also providing big spenders with large incentives in the form of tax exemption towards home buyers,education,loan repayment,insurance purchasers.Our fiscal situation does not give us the luxury to provide more incentives to big spenders though many banks and financial institutions are giving cash back offers on purchase through credit or debit cards.
DeleteThe biggest problem with the present day economists holding decision making power is the manner in which they try to play with the economic stability of the nation. The most important thing that makes an economy prosper is when the government instills confidence among the investors and the people with stable long term economic policies. When the economic policies (read interest rates and taxation rules) keep changing very frequently and abruptly only for giving windfall profits for some and catastrophic losses for many at the same time it reflects an incompetent government. Remember, no one would like to travel in a bus driven by driver who uses the accelerator and brake pedals too frequently and abruptly! Such drivers are prone to make accidents! And who would like to be in an economic accident prone nation?
DeleteThe manner in which some pseudo economists are calling for rate cuts are all with vested interests! They may quote about the low interest rates of other nations. But is it the only thing needed? When comparisons are made it should reflect all the issues. The most important thing India needs is reliable and firm actions for social security and for improving human development index. Investments only for making quick profits for some without any impact on employment generation or HDI are useless. What is the use when FII's bring huge cash investments to artificially raise the stock prices and easily quit making huge cash profits draining the long term wealth of the poor investors of India? The government and the people who decide governmental policies need to be more concerned for their nation and its millions of exploited people! If not, a time would come, as Justice Katju has warned, when the exploiters would face the wrath of the people!
Sir
ReplyDeleteYou have not quoted Marx who had explained this contradiction.