In U.P. Bihar and many other states, voting is ordinarily on caste and religious basis, unless there is a wave. There was a Modi wave in the May 2014 Lok Sabha elections, but that has dissipated entirely, as people have seen through the 'vikas' slogan, and found it was only a jumla. So now voting will be on the traditional basis of caste and religion. The upper castes will broadly vote for BJP in Bihar, but total upper castes i.e. Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars, and Banias are not more than 20%. Paswan will get the NDA 7-8% SC votes ( the entire SC community in Bihar is not with Paswan, as they are with Mayavati in U.P. ). ). That makes about 28% votes for the NDA. On the other hand the Yadavs ( about 10% of Bihar population ) and Kurmis ( about 9%) and many other OBCs will vote for the Grand Alliance. Muslims ( 17% of Bihar population ) will solidly vote for the Alliance, as they feel insecure after ghar wapasi, Muzaffarnagar and Ballabhgarh incidents. That itself makes it 36% or more votes for the Grand Alliance, a clearly winning combination. The packages and speeches by Modi, Nitish , Lalu, Sonia and others will matter little. 90 or 95% Biharis will not cast their vote but vote their caste
Hari Om
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