Tuesday 10 November 2015

How I predicted the Bihar election result

Many people asked me how I could so accurately predict the results of the Bihar election, when all the exit polls failed ( NDTV  was predicting an NDA victory till the last day before the results ).

  My answer is simple : in most states, including Bihar, most people vote on caste and religious lines, unless there is a wave.

 The Modi wave of 2014 had dissipated totally because people found the vikas slogan hollow as there was no job creation after May 2014. So they fell back on the traditional line of voting on the basis of caste and religion.

 So all I had to do was to calculate the percentage of caste population and Muslims, which I got from the net.
Thereafter it was a matter of simple arithmetic

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